Portia vs. The Rest

On our political landscape, I imagine that it is going to be difficult to replace Portia Simpson-Miller as President of the PNP if she is reluctant to step down.

Why so?

It looks to me as if her support is more than just a matter for party-line support, and instead is about Portia (and her followers) vs. The Rest.

Who are "The Rest?" Well, that changes from situation to situation. The Rest has so far been defined as:
-- the highly educated
-- the brown skinned
-- Peter Phillips, and Omar Davis
-- the non-working class members of the PNP
-- men
-- the wealthy
-- the JLP
-- K.D. Knight
-- P.J. Patterson

As some have put it, "Portia is one a we." In other words, "they" are not.

From the outside it seems that the PNP is at the mercy of Portia and her supporters. The agenda for last week's National Conference was changed becaue her supporters showed up at the National Stadium in their numbers uninvited. Did they do so because they feared that she was about to be ousted?

If so, it would be a mistake for the party of Michael Manley and other fine intellectuals to contine to cater to the lowest common denominator in our society. Unfortunately, our politics has gotten to the point where politicians sincerely believe that they cannot win votes without giving prospective voters T-shirts, box-lunches, Digicel credit or raw cash.

To put it more crudely, they think they cannot win without catering to the most hungry, the least educated and most easily "bought" among us. Replace the word "bought" with the word "bribed" and it probably paints a truer picture. The loyalty to Portia is a complex phenomena, and in this election "Vote for Portia and the PNP" was not a successful slogan, and did not represent a winning strategy.

Loyalty to Portia seems to mean... loyalty to Portia against everyone else who might be against her. And it seems to be the kind of unthinking loyalty that people have to politicians, football teams, armed factions, religions, the flag, pop artists and high schools.

I wonder if top PNP politicians are wondering what will happen if they do vote in a new President. Will there be demonstrations? Roadblocks? A Riot? Will they be able to placate the supporters of Portia with dress shirts, plate lunches, etc.?

It cannot be the case that the thought hasn't crossed anyone's mind that the party would do better with a different leader. Hopefully, the PNP will not lose itself in its efforts to remain popular, and decide the question of its leadership on more lofty terms.

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The Portia Factor -article

In the aftermath of the Eelction, I read the following article by Peter Espeut that I think is brilliant.

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20070905/cleisure/cleisure2.html

He says: The strategists in the PNP completely misread the situation; they thought her popularity was personal, and pushed her to the front: "Vote for Portia and the PNP". Portia was politically popular not because she is a nice lady (which apparently she genuinely is), but because like other political messiahs in our history (e.g. Marcus Garvey and Michael Manley) she promised a new day.

I think that he is absolutely right.

I read study that showed that US Presidential candidates that emphasized a brighter future were far more likely to win than others who merely criticized what their opponents had not done well.

Very late in the day (maybe 3 days before the elections) there was a brilliant ad from the PNP that came from what I heard was their "new" advertising agency.

It showed Portia's rise to leadership in the party, from her young days in the 1970's until today.

It perfectly captured the Portia Factor.

However, it got lost in the talk of "Trusting Portia" -- I was riding in the country yesterday and saw several billboards with Portia's picture and the line "You can Trust Portia." At the bottom it said "Vote for Porta and the PNP."

What a mistake, if Espeut's line of reasoning is anything to go by.

Early last year when I was a big supporter of Portia, I surely wasn't enchanted by her personality (which I knew little about.) What she represent is so much bigger than that.

Her life is a living symbol of what most Jamaicans want. Maybe all.

Everyone wants to have the opportunity to move ahead and become much more than our society would predict.

In that context, even her tirade on stage could have been explained with some candor, and once again remind people of how far she has come, yet she still makes mistakes.

Somehow, the message that her life demonstrates, got mixed up with her persona.

And we are all worse off as a result.

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Displeased with Portia

It's a year later, and I am sorry to say that I have lost a great deal of faith in Portia Simpson-Miller, our first female Prime Minister.

Last year, I was quite optimistic: Click here to see my past posts on Portia.

However, a year later, I am yet to see evidence of her leadership.

Unfortunately, she was in the news again this week with some more semi-spiritual talk, that just didn't seem to be the kind of things that make sense to me for a Prime Minister to say. Apparently, a Rev. Phinn has prophesied that she will win the elections this year. She said at the same church service that some major things were going to happen this year, in much the same vein that the prophet said his words.

And therein lie the highlights of her year in office -- some quasi-religious talk about putting pastors on church boards, being God's chosen vessel and warning those that might not heed her leadership as one of God's elected.

I honestly cannot remember another single thing that she has said or done, that are outside of the normal course of events for a Prime Minister. In other words, she has had twelve months in which to occupy the office, but has done nothing with it other than keep the seat warm.

I can only imagine what Michael or Normal Manley, Bustamante or Seaga would have done with that opportunity.

Instead, she seems to have followed the PJ Patterson model of doing and saying as little as possible... until election times, all the time relying on the Opposition to get itself into trouble. This safe road would be fine if all were well in our country.

But it's not all well at all, and nothing short of a leader who is willing to stand and make a difference is going to turn the ship around.

It's not that I doubt her sincerity, nor do I think that she is corrupt. And maybe she is the perfect follow-on to the scandals of the Patterson years.

Even the recent Trafigura scandal has not been traced back to a fault on her part (other than that of not acting quickly enough.)

But is it enough to warrant leadership of the country for another five years? I find it hard to justify -- if the past year is any indication.

I imagine the PNP is thinking that she does not have to be a great leader -- all she has to do is to be better than Bruce Golding, the leader of the JLP.

And they might have a point, as he seems to be cut from the same indecisive bolt of cloth.

Portia -- do something -- ANYTHING -- even the wrong thing, to convince us that you have a plan that you are indeed willing to follow, and not just a religious conviction that God has put you there for a reason.

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Waiting to Lead Our Country

I had a further thought about Portia Simpson-Miller's leadership that did not come through in my prior post on the topic.

Here it is, some twenty-thirty years that Portia has been a politician.

She ran for the leadership of the PNP back in 1991, and lost to PJ Patterson, who was immediately named Prime Minister to replace Michael Manley.

From 1991 until 2006 she was waiting in the wings, and after a bitter fight, she won the leadership over an MD and 2 PhD's -- having "only" a Bachelor's degree (according to some in her own party.)

So, she has been waiting years for this opportunity to lead. Preparing. Studying. Strategizing. Visioning.

She finally gets the position and, with a level of personal popularity not seen in our politics in thirty years, she is the choice of her party, the people of Jamaica, and even the Opposition, I daresay.

And in the past year she has done... what, now?

This is perplexing. In the 13 months she has been Prime Minister I can't say what she stands for, or intends to do, or is willing to take risks to accomplish.

I might just be repeating myself, but it is all perplexing, given the number of problems that we face.

P.S. France recently elected a new President and it is quite clear from the little I have read what his agenda is, what he is going to do, and the laws he intends to change -- "more work for more pay." We Jamaicans deserve our leadership to be that focused and clear about what they intend to do.

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Questions from a Dutchman

I received an interesting set of questions from a Dutch reader / journalist who is following the elections here in Jamaica from afar. I thought I'd reply publicly, just for the heck of it.

Here are the questions he sent, and here are my replies.

1. Background profile: Can you tell me your name, age and profession?
   
2. Do you follow the news about the election intensively or not? Do you think it’s important to follow the latest developments surrounding this topic? Explain.
3. What are, according to the politicians, the big themes on this campaign?
4. About which themes, according to the public, should politicians talk about?
5. Are there clear differences between the JLP and the PNP?
6. In what way is this election different from the previous one?
7. How has the Jamaican population viewed these election campaigns so far?
8. Does the media give an honest and objective report about the election process?
9. Which things strike you the most (positive or negative) lately when it comes to Jamaican politics?
10. Does the factor ‘first female PM of the Caribbean’ play an important role during these campaigns? Do they look forward or are they hesitant about it?
11. PM Portia-Miller has been in office for 1,5 year. What has she achieved during her term?
12. In the beginning of 2007 a Dutch company was involved in a corruption scandal that was linked with the PNP. Has that brought severe damage to Portia-Miller and her party-members?
13. Due to Hurricane Dean elections have been postponed for at least a week and campaigning been put on non-active. Has this been a good or bad decision? Explain.
14. How is the aid process coming along for the Dean-victims?
15. Despite who wins, do you (or the Jamaican people) have any confident in the current generation of politicians who’s job is to create a prosperous,transparent and righteous society? Why so/not?

1. Francis Wade / 41 / Management Consultant

2. I follow the news closely, as do the vast majority of Jamaicans. We are highly politicised, care a great deal about political topics, and vote in high numbers. I think it's important to be engaged because it matters a lot which party is in power in so very many ways.

3. Crime, the economy/poverty, jobs, corruption

4. The same -- they are on target

5. In many ways they are close on the issues and the ideas that they have, with some differences that have longer-term consequences. In terms of leadership, there is a tremendous difference.

6. The previous election in 2002 featured Edward Seaga leading the JLP vs. PJ Patterson leading the PNP. Both have since retired, bringing in a new generation of leaders, and a new level of involvement in politics as there are strong feelings about the new leaders and what they represent, whereas the former leaders represented older ways of leading and running the country. By and large, the primary sentiment that drove voting patterns was people's antipathy against Mr. Seaga. I believe that this was the deciding factor in the three elections that they contested against each other.

7. The country just faced Hurricane Dean, and is tired of the campaign on a whole, which has gone on longer than most thought it would. Most feel that some of the advertising has been over the top, and that the campaigning is necessary, but overly reliant on mass meetings, motorcades and gifts to the party faithful

8. Yes, the media is by and large honest, although hardly aggressive enough

9. Positive -- a LOT of us care about politics and the decision that is before the nation
Negative -- our low level of education allows (forces?) politicians to be very "basic" and overly-simplistic in their appeal, speeches and style. There is an unthinking devotion to each party that is sad to see.

10. I don't think this is a factor at all

11. In the 1.5 years she has been able to give many people hope that even an ordinary Jamaican from a humble background can become Prime Minister and that the government can deeply care for people. Also, last year the economy grew slightly, and the murder rate fell.

12. It definitely has caused damage. In the televised debates a few weeks ago the Prime Minister said that she did not accept money from Trafigura, and in the next sentence she said that she ordered it returned. The whole thing gave the impression that she did not know what was going on under her nose.

13. The country is still reeling from Hurricane Dean, so there was really no choice about postponing elections by a week to allow for recovery. The new process relies on the use of electricity, and only about half the country has power at the moment.

14. It is difficult to say as information is hard to come by. It seems slower than it should be, at this point.

15. I have a certain guarded confidence in our politicians, but I think that at this point they can only play the role of spoilers. In other words, they can mess things up, but they cannot make things much better operating on their own. I think their power is terribly overrated, and that they need to step out of their fraternal/maternal roles in order to provide the deft touch that the country needs to move forward. It's time the Jamaican people stopped relying on them for more than the basics, and blaming them for what they cannot control or powerfully influence.

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A Whiff of Possibility

For the first time in many years, there is a whiff of possibility in the air.

It started with the Leader of the Opposition for the past 16 years, Edward Seaga, retiring, in early 2005. Finally. He was un-electable.


It continued with the Police Commissioner, Francis Forbes, leaving. Thankfully. He was ineffective.

It kept going with the retirement of the Prime Minister, PJ Patterson, demitting office. At long last. He accomplished little.

It got a little extra push with the surprise departure of the Governor General, Sir Howard Cook. Gratefully. He upheld a status quo that was broken.

In the space of some 15 or so months, the most powerful positions in our country have changed hands, with the possible sole exception of the positions in the judiciary, and dem fi go from long time (including the DPP and the Chief Justice.)

It was 1972 when Michael Manley swept into office, and that perhaps was the last time that Jamaicans had leadership that we could believe in. He promised much at that time, and created a vision for our people that was outstanding and breathtaking, and just plain inspiring. He himself was brilliant, handsome, articulate and had a charisma that we Jamaicans just loved.

However, by the time he left office in 1980 in a massive landslide (the largest ever in a contested election in our nation’s history) it had all gone terribly wrong. The economy actually shrunk in real terms. Our citizens were leaving Jamaica without telling their parents, brothers, sisters and neighbours to live in Miami, Toronto and New York.

Although I was only 6 years old in 1972, and cannot remember anything of that year, I do recall the way in which Jamaicans were mobilized in creating a better future for our country, as Manley helped to create a picture of a better future for us all.

The turning point, in my own experience was not the oil shocks of 1974 and onwards that rocked the world economy. It was not the crime that began to increase at a rapid rate (although nowhere near what it is today.) It was not the interference of outside forces from other nations.

Instead, it was the death of possibility, that for me as a 9 year old was epitomized in Manley’s famous “five flights a day” declaration.

He said: “Jamaica has no room for millionaires. For anyone who wants to become a millionaire, we have five flights a day to Miami.”

That single statement is remember by Jamaicans everywhere, as it helped to set off a wholesale migration of our country’s professional middle class that we have never recovered from, and continues today with the belief that a better life can only be had by going to live abroad.

I’m sure that Manley didn’t intend that to happen, but happen it did, as his words as Prime Minister essentially killed the infant possibility that he had brought into existence in 1972.

When he lost power in 1980, it was by landslide, and there was a short-lived euphoria that ushered in Edward Seaga’s tenure as Prime Minister. He was succeeded by Manley, mostly because change was not happening quickly enough. Manley was succeeded in his own party by PJ Patterson, mostly because he was the best of what was seen as a weak bunch. He won every election after that, not because he was good, but because the alternative -- Edward Seaga – was unpalatable to most Jamaicans.

A few weeks ago, Portia Simpson-Miller won the right to become the head of her political party, and therefore next Prime Minister of Jamaica, replacing PJ Patterson. She was not supposed to win, as the word on the street was that one of her opponents was desperate enough to pay party delegates J$3000 (about US$50) to vote for him. There was more word that they (the predominantly male power brokers in the party) would never let her win.

Middle and Upper class Jamaicans were embarrassed, as Portia from time-to-time will lapse in what Trinis call “green verbs” – grammatically incorrect English -- and the thought of her “H””s doing a dance from one word to another in the presence of Kofi Annan, George Bush or (God forgive us) THE QUEEN.. was just unbearable to many.

“’Ello Your Majesty, I ‘ope you ‘ad a good flight, and welcome to h’our h’island home.”

(I cringle a llittle myself at the thought.)

But regardless of that (who cares about our H’s anyway given our much bigger problems…) her election has brought a whiff of possibility.

She has come from very humble beginnings, and made herself into a leader of a nation. She overcame the odds, and she is a fighter, and we Jamaicans love that.

She kisses, and hugs, and talks about love and forgiveness and God ALL the time, and we need that -- according to my wife, “What Jamaica needs now is a Mummy.”

But above all else, she talks about the future, our future. And she’s doing it in way that no-one since Michael Manley of 1972 has done it, or more importantly, been heard doing it.

While we are afraid to commit ourselves to much (we got too burned the last time around) we want her to succeed very, very, badly. More importantly, we want all of us to succeed, and we all want to succeed.

Out of nowhere, it seems, our murders have dropped by 20% in the last couple of months. It is the kind of thing that happens when possibility enters that air, and may we all work together to make it last.

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Scamps or Statesmen

In a recent post, I made the point that our politicians had the choice of being statesmen, or scamps.

A couple of recent events looked to me to be particularly scamp-like.

One was the recent move by the JLP to block the count of 2 un-counted boxes in the constituency in which their candidate was declared the winner. The article can be accessed here.

To observers it seems that the only reason the count is being blocked is to prevent the magisterial count from being overturned.

While they have every legal right to go to court and to take the action they took, I believe it was a grave mistake, and defies the spirit of the law. It was an opportunity that was lost to take the morale high ground, and to put country over party at a time when a clear demonstration was needed.

Today, the PNP had its national conference, and I noticed that Portia ignored the clear overtures that Bruce had made to join together in some creative way to lead the country.

It would have been better for Jamaica to have said "I hear you but, I don't believe you." To ignore his words altogether, and instead to promise only that "this isn't finished" (in reference to the last election) strikes me as more of the scamp-like behaviour that puts party over country.

I believe the country yearned for her to at least acknowledges that he reached out, and that his slim majority means that he MUST do so for the sake of Jamaica's peace and prosperity.

While these look to me like lost opportunities, I think these are early days, and that the situation is not lost, it's just that we are off to a rocky start.

I get the feeling that people of principle have abandoned our political process, and that we (including myself) have turned into a nation of talk-show hosts.

When people of principle withdraw themselves, the scamps run the roost. The results are disastrous, and the burden of failure comes down the most heavily on the poor, the uneducated and the unemployed.

They are largely the ones wearing the T-shirts, hanging out the buses to travel to party meetings hoping to get a free lunch and a little money, and who will vote for anyone in the right colour T-shirt. Scampish behaviour appeals to the lowest common denominator and breeds a dependence that relies on appetite (for food, money, excitement, thrill, love) over intelligence.

Unfortunately, you can't run a country on by feeding people's appetites, and now it looks like the camp-like behaviour that we have tolerated during "election-time" might well be running the show for a very, very long time.

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Simpson-Miller vs. Golding Debates link

YouTube is carrying the entire debate between Portia Simpson-Miller of the PNP and Bruce Golding of the JLP at the following URL:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTM4RWMr8ng

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A Drop in Migration

Yesterday on the news I heard an astounding statistic.

A mere 13,000 Jamaican migrated last year, down from highs of 25-30,000 from only a few years ago.

I am waiting to see some final numbers, but this pretty startling.

Is it the Portia effect?

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Justice Over Drinks

As we came around the corner, my taxi-driver and I, we broke the stop sign. Standing there was a crew of policeman who promptly pulled us over. They made the appropriate sounds of disapproval before accepting only $500 from my taxi-driver.

It was a gift for them to buy "drinks," although everyone knows that the cost of a "drink" for a policeman runs half the cost of the $7000 traffic ticket. He laughed, grateful that he was let off easily and on we went. After all, he argued, I was his first fare of the morning.

"What can you do for me today?" '
"'Do you want to go right to court? Or lef' something with me? "
"Do you want to go left or right?"

These are the code-words I have learned, as a recent returnee, that policemen use when they are offering to help you to ''help yourself'' out of your predicament. You have been pulled over for a traffic violation, and it is now up to you to decide whether or not to try to get yourself out of it.

At this point, instead of being mad, I only feel a certain pity. At a pay rate that is abysmal, how much can be expected? They have dangerous jobs, in one of the most dangerous cities in the world, and they can barely afford to scratch out a basic existence.

Their response is that of the underpaid civil servant the world over - desperate and pathetic.

It is no wonder that the Bob Woolmer investigation seems to have been bungled beyond belief. A Jamaican autopsy takes 20 minutes, and according to the United Nations standard it should take 2-4 hours. We are hardly the more efficient.

In defense of law-breaking motorists, their choice to break a second law is an easy one. A ticket costs them $7000, a whole day in court and 3 points on the license. A bribe (sorry... drink) costs $3000 and an opportunity to give a seemingly charitable gift to a poor, underpaid civil servant.

Here in Jamaica, this is what we do -- we take matters into our own hands. The justice system is so faulty that bypassing it remains the only way to allow life to keep running.

So, we Jamaicans buy lots of ''drinks'' for traffic cops. We block roads when citizens are shot by police. We pull together vigilante squads to hunt down and kill thieves who steal cows and harvest the crops of others. We rent guns and pay gunmen to exact revenge from others.

We do it because it is the only way to get justice in a timely way, as the backlog in the courts makes a mockery of the citizen's attempts to use official channels.

After all, why wait years for the court to do their work, when there are countless guns for hire who are willing to "take care of things" in a matter of days.

Fortunately, a change may be afoot. At the moment, there is a new Chief Justice who has been nominated, due to take office in July. That she is a woman is a good thing, as just about anything that works in Jamaica is run by a woman.

As with Portia, we shall see.

P.S. Not that the problem of police corruption is unique to Jamaica. My sister has encountered much greater corruption in African countries that she has lived in.

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An Amen People vs. A Thinking People

As elections near, and the party faithful rally around their party leaders for the election party that is underway, I believe that Jamaicans can be divided between "Amen" people and "thinking people."

"Amen" people are those who do very little thinking for themselves. They do just enough, perhaps, to make a decision about what point of view to hold, and the rest of their lives defending that point of view against all comers.

They can't really explain why they support one party or another in rational terms. They probably can't say why they believe the religion they adhere to, either.

Their response when asked is "that's what my family believes" or "this is what I have always believed" or "the Bible says.... / the party leader says..."

They make up perhaps a half of the electorate, and fortunately for Jamaica, no single party has a tremendous advantage over the other in the size of their Amen corner. This might be why our democracy is such a vibrant and energetic one.

"Amen" people are easy to entertain and sustain -- all it takes is some sustained bashing of those who hold the opposing view, and some reminders as to why the holders of the prevailing view are better.

On the other hand, there are Jamaicans who are "thinking," and refuse to adhere to one point of view or another without giving it some serious thought. They could not care less which party is in power, but they do care what policies are being promoted and employed.

They vote with their minds, rather than with anything else, and support principles rather than people.

In this election, the competition has come down to a battle for those who are thinking, because the Amen votes are largely unchangeable. There remains a tremendous number of undecideds, up to 20% of the electorate by some measures.

In this context, a recent series of PNP advertisements seems to be a huge mistake. They are trying to make hay of the fact that Bruce Golding left the JLP for the NDM in the early 1990's, only to return in 2002. He did so because the JLP did not support his call for constitutional reform. He returned when they agreed to include these ideas on the party's agenda.

The PNP's ads are trying to paint him as a "Flip-Flopper" because he made these moves.

In other words, they are trying to appeal to those who value party loyalty, by emphasizing the fact that he has changed parties twice.

Unfortunately, all the ad does for the "thinking" person is to emphasize that Bruce is also a thinking person. All it does for the "Amen" people is to emphasize that he is not one of them.

The problem is that the PNP needs to be appealing to the thinking people who are undecided, not the Amen people whose minds are forever made up.

I have a sinking feeling that Portia herself is an Amen person, and might be thinking that most people are like her. Unfortunately, someone who values powerful ideas that benefits Jamaica, and puts them above their political future, and party loyalty, is the kind of politician that Jamaica needs more of.

The ad only serves to boost Bruce Golding's reputation as someone who the country needs.

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Portia on the Hustings

I'm not sure what kind of comment this video warrants.

It's left me speechless.



I imagine that even the Prime Minister would not defend this particular display, and would agree that something _must_ change, starting with whatever allowed or caused this speech to happen the way it did on this particular night.

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Editorials

There have been a couple of editorials in today's newspapers related to the gang violence at UWI.

The Jamaica Observer: The Mindless UWI Rabble

The Jamaica Gleaner: Barbarous Bloodlust at UWI

I'd love to hear what UWI bloggers have to say about the matter, if anything. I noticed that "b" added a comment of her own to the article on this blog.

At the moment, there is an opportunity before things return to business as usual to make a difference. What would it be like if either the Prime Minister or the Governor General were to make good on some of the fine words they spoke at Portia's swearing in? After all, the Govnernor General was Principal up until a few short weeks ago. Where is the current administration of UWI in all this, and where do its leader's stand?

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Steel in the Night

It's Carnival Saturday night, and I am listening to an internet broadcast of the Prime Minister announcing the election of the new head of the PNP -- Portia Simpson-Miller.

But, as I listen to his words, my head and heart are filled with pride and astonishment at yet another Panorama Steelband Finals in the Savannah at Port of Spain, Trinidad.

I remember the first time I heard pan -- I was shocked that no-one ever told me that such a thing existed. Or maybe someone did, but I wasn't listening -- LOL.

Steel orchestras of over 100 people are wheeled onto a huge stage, and play the most exciting pan music I've ever heard, at a frenetic pace. The effect is astounding, as hundreds of percussion instruments roar into the night. Months of group practice come to a head. There is no sheet music, as the players have all learned their parts by heart through constant repetition. Some are playing a single steel drum with tens of notes. Others are playing nine steel drums with 3 notes or more each. Even others are using other percussion instruments, including traditional African drums, chimes, bells, car brakes and other instruments that have names that I am not acquainted with.

The miracle is that the source of this music comes from what looks to most of the rest of the world as garbage pans. That magic could come from rubbish is part of the miracle, and that Caribbean people are the innovators of this music is another. We, the people formed from "the stone that the builder refused" overcome the horrible tragedies of our past, and our historical status as the lowest members of the human race in the eyes of the earthly powers of the past few centuries.

I felt very, very proud tonight.

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